Post Sept. 11-lull lasting in Boston, easing elsewhere

By Bruce Mohl, Globe Staff, 03/31/02

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Boston's two closest competing airports have bounced back from Sept. 11 much faster than Logan International Airport, suggesting that the flying patterns of New England travelers may have fundamentally changed since then.

Before the terrorist attacks, T.F. Green Airport in Warwick, R.I., and Manchester (N.H.) Airport were growing at a faster rate than Logan because they offered travelers fewer commuting problems, cheaper parking, less expensive rental cars, and oftentimes lower fares.

The aftershocks of Sept. 11 have only accentuated Logan's "hassle factor" in the minds of many travelers. With the traffic, the construction, and the steady stream of minor security snafus at Logan, many people have decided to give those smaller airports to the north and south a try.

"People are shifting their choice of airport," said Kevin Dillon, executive director at Manchester Airport. "There's a pretty significant demographic shift going on."

Every airport in the nation saw a big drop in passenger traffic after Sept. 11, but Logan's numbers have been particularly bad. Passenger traffic there has been off far more than the national average every month since September. In January, the number of passengers boarding planes at Logan was down 24 percent from a year ago, compared with a 15 percent drop nationally.

Manchester and Green both saw their passenger traffic plummet in September, but both have rebounded strongly. Green's passenger levels are now only slightly down compared with last year - 2.5 percent in February - while Manchester actually resumed positive growth in December. Manchester's passenger traffic was up an astounding 5.8 percent in February, the airport's third consecutive record-setting month. All this in the midst of a recession and a downturn in travel.

Logan still dwarfs all its neighbors in terms of overall passenger traffic, but Green and Manchester, the region's third and fourth busiest airports after Hartford's Bradlee Airport, appear to be shouldering more and more of the passenger burden in New England.

The Federal Aviation Administration issued a report in 1999 saying that Logan would grow more slowly than expected over the next 10 years, in large part because regional airports like Manchester and Green were picking up the slack. The report predicted Logan would be handling 33.6 million passengers by 2010, about 4 million fewer than Massport had been projecting.

The FAA projections were scaled back before Sept. 11 - now Logan is not expected to handle 33.6 million passengers until 2015 - and may have to be reduced even further after a review planned for this summer. Logan handled 24 million passengers last year, down 12.7 percent from the year before, and is not expected to return to positive growth before the end of this year.

"I think what you're seeing is that T.F. Green and Manchester have established themselves, which is a good thing," said Thomas Kinton, acting executive director at Logan.

Kinton said Logan suffered after Sept. 11 because it wasn't a hub for any of the retrenching airlines, but he added that most carriers plan to add service out of Logan in the coming months. He thinks travelers who shifted to Green and Manchester may return to Logan when they are offered the convenience of direct connections again.

"The economy is improving. Flights are being added. You'll quickly see the growth come back to Boston," Kinton said. "I think there's a lot of positive signs out there."

But officials at Green and Manchester see positive signs as well. Service is being added at their airports, too, and Southwest Airlines, an important carrier at both, is poised for strong growth after weathering the downturn without scaling back service. The officials think travelers who tried Green and Manchester over the last several months will keep coming back because the inconvenience of driving a few extra highway miles is more than offset by the psychological and economic benefits of using a smaller, less congested, and less expensive airport.

"Passengers feel regional airports are a little safer, that regional airports can process you through security faster," Dillon said.

Parking at Logan is $5 an hour, $22 a day, and $99 a week. At Manchester, the comparable rates are $1 an hour, $14 a day, and $70 a week. At Green, they are $4 an hour, $17 a day, and $48 a week. Rental cars are also cheaper at Green and Manchester. Hertz rents a compact car for a week for $270 at Logan. The same package costs $229 at Green and $224 at Manchester.

Before Sept. 11, Dillon said, Manchester drew passengers from just north of Route 128 in Massachusetts; now passengers are coming from Boston itself. Monthly passenger surveys indicate 17.7 percent of Manchester's passengers are coming from Massachusetts, up from 12.3 percent before Sept. 11. Dillon predicts Massachusetts residents will eventually account for more than 40 percent of Manchester's passengers.

Michael Cheston, executive director at Green, has seen only a slight uptick in out-of-state passengers since Sept. 11, but he said the numbers are bound to increase. "You're seeing a continuation of a trend that was ongoing before the attacks," he said.

Next year Manchester plans to open a 9,000-foot runway, long enough to accommodate jets that can fly direct to the West Coast. Right now, flights out of Manchester can only make it as far as Kansas City, Mo.

"When the runway opens, you're going to see a further drop in the Logan market," Dillon said.

Bruce Mohl can be reached by e-mail at mohl@globe.com.